The 19^th Hole

January 7, 2007

Off To A Great Start?

Vijay Singh kicked off the 2007 PGA Tour season with a victory at the Mercedes Championship in Hawaii.  Sure, the world’s top two ranked players – Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson – were not in attendance.  Despite that, Singh’s 30^th career win generated a host of emails and commentary for the The Golf Channel’s post tournament program.  Most of it surrounded whether or not Vijay could recapture some of the form that saw him win 9 times in a season, have the first $10 million year, and capture two money list titles.

Such speculation after one really windy tournament to kick off a season seems preposterous.  After all, the Mercedes event is really just a special treat for many players in the field.  It’s a trip to Hawaii for many who perennially win on Tour.  For the litany of first time winners, it is just an honor to have earned the invitation.  This event usually lacks the feel of a real season opening event in terms of attitude.  That will really begin next week at the Sony Open in Hawaii – though the Michelle Wie sideshow will again dominate the headlines.  (Shameless plug: but not on the newly redesigned thegolfnewsnet.com.)

The Defending Champion

It does not take much of a look back to see that the Mercedes-Benz Championship is not exactly the strongest indicator of a solid season thereafter.  One need not look much further than three-time defending champion Stuart Appleby.  Having won in Las Vegas late in the 2003 season, the Aussie earned an invite to Hawaii in the following January.  That week, he spanked Kapalua and won at -22.  The next week, he missed the cut.  He had five top 10s for the season (respectable, certainly), but just two after March.  He went on to miss seven cuts out of 25 events in 2004.

Returning to Kapalua in 2005 as the defending champion of the winners-only event (kind of ironic, eh), Appleby again found the same rhythm he had 12 months prior.  He won at -21 in successful defense.  He had 4 top 10 finishes – none in the top 3 – and six missed cuts to finish the year in almost a mirror of his 2004 season.

Appleby’s affinity for Kapalua had become fact by the time January 2006 appeared on the calendar.  In much tougher scoring conditions, Stuart won for the third straight year at -8.  This year played out differently than the others, though.  He later went on to win in Houston and missed only three cuts during the 2006 campaign.  It was his best season on Tour.  Then he proceeded to be nowhere near contention all week this year and finished thirteenth.

Then Again…

There have been some winners that have taken the momentum from Hawaii and turned it into a fantastic season.  The last man not named Appleby to have won in Hawaii before this week was Ernie Els in 2003.  He dominated Kapalua and the field to win at -31 (yeah, you forgot about that).  The next week, he won the Sony Open.  That would be his final win of the year, but he would finish in the top ten 5 more times during the season and not miss a cut in 17 events.

Sergio Garcia – remember him – won in Kapalua in 2002.  He did not win for the rest of the season after Hawaii, so you might be lead to believe that he would be coupled with Appleby in this column.  But, where Appleby failed to remain consistent, Garcia was almost automatic in 2002.  In 21 events, Garcia finished in the top ten on nine occasions and missed just two cuts.

So, Why the Examples?

The last three champions of this event were used as examples to prove that a win in the season debut does not guarantee wins or consistency for the entire year.  Vijay Singh is 43 years of age and is probably perfectly aware that the window to be significant on the seemingly ever-younger PGA Tour is closing. 

In his press conference following the win, Singh postured with the press and said that he fully expects that he could remain in good enough physical condition to win until he becomes eligible for the Champions Tour – a la Fred Funk winning the Players Championship at age 48.  He may very well be right.  It may also be the case that this is the last time we hear about Vijay at the top of the leaderboard for the remainder of the year.  There are too many factors in golf and the Tour life that are uncontrollable but dictate the fate of players and their success.

If nothing else, though, Vijay can take solace in the fact that the PGA Tour season is now officially over in September.  That means all of the extra effort and range hours that Singh was accustomed to putting in for the 84 Lumber Classics of the world can be spent on trying to win the inaugural FedEx Cup (in case you had not heard about it from the Tour yet).

So, in the spirit of irony, as a columnist I am going to make a prediction about the future in a column where I said we should not do that.  Vijay Singh will continue to be just as consistent as he has since he has turned 40.  After all, Singh now has the most wins of any PGA Tour player in history after hitting that age.  It seems that the twilight is the brightest light for Vijay Singh and 2006 will continue to show that for the hardest working man on Tour.

Ryan Ballengee is host of The 19th Hole Golf Show, found at The Golf Newsnet.com.  Having graduated from the University of Maryland in 2004 and 2006, Ballengee brings the perspective of the younger golf fan to the microphone and his columns.  Over the nearly five years he has been broadcasting and writing, Ballengee has developed a reputation for a unique interviewing style that asks both the difficult and fun questions. You can also get The 19th Hole on the go through podcasting by clicking here The Golf Newsnet Contact Ryan via e-mail at the19thholeshow@hotmail.com.